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Political Psychology

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Political Psychology

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Research Frontiers in Cognitive Biases in Election Forecasting

Explores systematic errors in predicting electoral outcomes caused by availability heuristics and overconfidence bias.

Confirmation Bias Cascades in Poll Interpretation
Affective Polarization and Forecast Model Divergence
Anchoring Effects in Pre-Election Expectation Formation
Motivated Reasoning in Aggregate Prediction Markets
Availability Heuristics Shaping Electoral Narrative Dominance
In-group Bias in Expert Forecaster Calibration
Recency Effects and Late-Campaign Prediction Reversals
Overconfidence Asymmetries Across Political Identities
Illusory Pattern Recognition in Electoral Data Noise
Sunk Cost Fallacy in Sustained Forecast Commitment

All Political Psychology PhD categories